Brazil’s robusta coffee harvest this year is not just a record in volume terms but, at 36%, represents an unusually large proportion of total coffee output too for the top producing country.

But exports aren’t following the script. In July to September, the first three months of Brazil’s 2022-23 coffee marketing year, robusta accounted for just 422,000 bags, equivalent to 4.4% of the country’s total shipments.

That is the worst start to a marketing year, on absolute and relative terms, since 2017, when Brazil’s robusta output was particularly undermined by prolonged drought.

The comparison illustrates the extent of the draw on supplies from Brazil’s own roasters, and notably its soluble coffee industry.

Brazil’s Q1 coffee exports lag, despite strong harvest
Production   Exports
Year In million bags % of total coffee output In million bags % of total coffee exports
2022 17.970 35.7% 0.422 4.4%
2021 16.293 34.1% 1.147 10.9%
2020 14.311 22.7% 1.599 17.5%
2019 15.013 30.4% 1.410 15.7%
2018 14.174 23.0% 1.202 18.1%
2017 10.721 23.8% 0.075 1.1%
2016 7.987 15.5% 0.108 1.4%
2015 11,187 25.9% 1.143 14.0%
2014 13.036 28.8% 1.064 13.3%
2013 10.866 22.1% 0.481 7.2%
2012 12.482 24.6% 0.485 8.4%
Sources: Cecafe, Conab, GrainPriceNews