The US Department of Agriculture on Friday published the May edition of its monthly Wasde report, including first crop forecasts for 2023-24.
Below key data in the briefing, and how they differed from the expectations of investors, as polled by Reuters.
| USDA forecasts for 2023 US corn, soybean production |
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| Crop | USDA forecast |
Change on year |
Change on Outlook Forum forecast |
Difference from market expectation |
| Corn yield | 181.5 | +8.2 | in line | +0.8 |
| Corn production | 15,265 | +15,350 | +180 | +230 |
| Soybean yield | 52.0 | +2.5 | in line | +0.2 |
| Soybean production | 4,510 | +234 | in line | +16 |
| Yield data in bushels per acre. Production data in billion bushels | ||||
| USDA forecasts for US grain stocks, close of 2022-23 |
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| Crop | USDA forecast |
Difference from last month’s estimate |
Difference from market expectation |
| Corn | 1,417 | +75 | +51 |
| Soybeans | 215 | +5 | +3 |
| All wheat | 598 | unchanged | -5 |
| Data in million bushels | |||
| USDA forecasts for US grain stocks, close of 2023-24 |
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| Crop | USDA forecast |
Difference from last month’s estimate | Difference from market expectation |
| Corn | 2,222 | N/A | +128 |
| Soybeans | 335 | N/A | +42 |
| All wheat | 556 | N/A | -46 |
| Data in million bushels | |||
| USDA forecasts for world grain stocks, close of 2022-23 |
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| Crop | USDA forecast |
Difference from last month’s estimate | Difference from market expectation |
| Corn | 297.41 | +2.06 | +2.2 |
| Soybeans | 101.04 | +1.03 | +2.0 |
| All wheat | 266.28 | +1.23 | +1.2 |
| Data in million tonnes | |||
| USDA forecasts for world grain stocks, close of 2023-24 |
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| Crop | USDA forecast |
Difference from last month’s estimate | Difference from market expectation |
| Corn | 312.90 | N/A | +5.4 |
| Soybeans | 122.50 | N/A | +14.4 |
| All wheat | 264.34 | N/A | +4.6 |
| Data in million tonnes | |||
| USDA estimates for US winter wheat harvest, 2023-24 |
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| Crop | USDA forecast | Change on year |
Difference from market expectation |
| Hard red | 514.297 | -16.613 | -77 |
| Soft red | 405.754 | +69.229 | +6 |
| White | 210.364 | -25.908 | -27 |
| Total winter wheat | 1,130.415 | +26.708 | -100 |
| Implied spring wheat, durum | 529 | -17 | -30 |
| All wheat | 1,659 | +9 | -130 |
| Data in thousand bushels |
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