The US Department of Agriculture will on Friday reveal much-anticipated data on US crop inventories as of the start of September which, in showing disappearance over the previous three months, gives a fuller insight into demand than available from eg export, crush and milling data.
The USDA will also publish revised estimates for this year’s US harvest of so-called “small grains”, including wheat. Furthermore, it will revisit its estimates for US 2021 corn and soybean harvests.
Below expectations of what investors, as polled by Reuters, expect the reports to show.
| Estimates for USDA data on US grain inventories, as of September 1 | ||||
| Crop | Mean forecast | Range of forecasts | Stocks as of June 1 2022 | Stocks as of September 1 2021 |
| Corn | 1.512 | 1.420-1.633 | 4.346 | 1.235 |
| Soybeans | 0.242 | 0.215-0.264 | 0.971 | 0.257 |
| All wheat | 1.776 | 1.663-1.844 | 0.660 | 1.774 |
| Data in billion bushels |
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| Market expectations for USDA estimates of US wheat harvest, 2022-23 |
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| Crop | Mean forecast | Range of forecasts | USDA’s existing estimate |
| Hard red winter |
0.573 | 0.555-0.581 | 0.576 |
| Soft red winter |
0.379 | 0.367-0.385 | 0.381 |
| White winter |
0.238 | 0.225-0.242 | 0.24 |
| All winter wheat | 1.191 | 1.165-1.204 | 1.198 |
| Durum | 0.074 | 0.068-0.076 | 0.074 |
| Other spring wheat | 0.514 | 0.503-0.525 | 0.512 |
| All wheat | 1.778 | 1.750-1.790 | 1.783 |
| All data in billion bushels | |||
| Estimates for USDA data on US 2021 corn, soybean production |
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| Crop | Mean forecast | Range of forecasts | Existing USDA estimate |
| Corn | 15.091 | 15.025-15.125 | 15.115 |
| Soybeans | 4.437 | 4.420-4.456 | 4.435 |
| Data in billion bushels |
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