The US Department of Agriculture on Monday published the May edition of its monthly Wasde report, including first crop forecasts for 2025-26.
Below key data in the briefing, and how they differed from the expectations of investors, as polled by Reuters.
| USDA forecasts for 2025 US corn, soybean production |
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| Crop | USDA forecast |
Change on year |
Change on Outlook Forum forecast |
Difference from market expectation |
| Corn yield | 181.0 | +1.7 | in line | -0.1 |
| Corn production | 15,820 | +953 | +235 | +33 |
| Soybean yield | 52.5 | +1.8 | in line | in line |
| Soybean production | 4,340 | -26 | -30 | +2 |
| Yield data in bushels per acre. Production data in billion bushels | ||||
| USDA forecasts for US grain stocks, close of 2024-25 | |||
| Crop | USDA forecast |
Difference from last month’s estimate |
Difference from market expectation |
| Corn | 1,415 | ||
| Soybeans | 350 | ||
| All wheat | 841 | ||
| Data in million bushels | |||
| USDA forecasts for US grain stocks, close of 2025-26 | |||
| Crop | USDA forecast |
Difference from February Outlook Forum | Difference from market expectation |
| Corn | 1,800 | -165 | -22o |
| Soybeans | 295 | -25 | -80 |
| All wheat | 923 | +97 | +66 |
| Data in million bushels | |||
| USDA forecasts for world grain stocks, close of 2024-25 | |||
| Crop | USDA forecast |
Difference from last month’s estimate | Difference from market expectation |
| Corn | |||
| Soybeans | |||
| All wheat | |||
| Data in million tonnes | |||
| USDA forecasts for world grain stocks, close of 2025-26 | |||
| Crop | USDA forecast |
Difference from last month’s estimate | Difference from market expectation |
| Corn | 277.84 | #N/A | -20.2 |
| Soybeans | 124.33 | #N/A | -2.9 |
| All wheat | 265.73 | #N/A | +5.1 |
| Data in million tonnes | |||
| USDA estimates for US winter wheat harvest, 2025-26 | |||
| Crop | USDA forecast | Change on year |
Difference from market expectation |
| Hard red | |||
| Soft red | |||
| White | |||
| Total winter wheat | |||
| Implied spring wheat, durum | |||
| All wheat | 1,921 | -50 | +36 |
| Data in thousand bushels |
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