It’s easy to see how the pandemic might have chilled world coffee consumption.

Yes, the at-home drinking segment gained. But it would have had to pedal hard to make-up for the losses in the out-of-home segment, which is three times the size.

… at least, according to Nestlé, and using 2021 values, ie after the worst of the pandemic damage was done.

While the world’s biggest coffee group sees expansion in the world market resuming growth of some 5% a year by value, it stopped short of giving details of damage from 2020 Covid restrictions.

Coffee-mandering

Nestle claims 22% of the overall coffee market which, given it reported a 15% share of the out-of-home sector, implies a share of more than 40% of the at-home segment.

It also claims top rank “across every geography”, ie across all five regional breakdowns shown. That said, these breakdowns do not tally neatly with continental borders. Coffee-mandering (of even cherry-mandering) perhaps?

Key findings of the group’s coffee presentation, from its investor day, are given below.

For a commentary on the presentation, click here.

World coffee market value, split between at-home out-of-home sectors
At home
Market value (bn Swiss francs)
  Out of home
Market value (bn Swiss francs)
Roast and ground 28 Cafes and bars 113
Instant 25 Hotels and restaurants 97
Ready to drink 22 Workplace 36
Portion 22 Others 50
Whole beans 6
Total about 100 about 300
Source: Nestlé

 

World’s top coffee CPG* companies
Company Market share (%)
Nestle 22
JDE 8
Starbucks 3
Others 67
Source: Nestlé. *CPG stands for “consumer packaged goods”

 

Global consumer spending on coffee, per head
Year Spending (Swiss francs)
2022 12
2000 5
Source: Nestlé.

 

Geographical divide in coffee consumption
Geography Consumption (cups per person per year)
Africa, China, India 32
Rest of the world >200
Source: Nestlé.

 

Nestlé share of regional markets
Region Market share (%)
China 53.9
Europe, Turkey, former Soviet Union 24.9
Latin America 24.6
Africa, other Asia, Oceania 18.0
North America 15.1
Source: Nestlé.