Arabica coffee inventories as held for delivery against ICE futures have dwindled markedly, to their lowest since the 1990s, in a shift attributed to factors such as disappointing output and a quest by roasters for easily available supplies, in the face of continued logistical hiccups.
But which origin has suffered most? In short all of them – bar Brazil, which has leaped to top rank notably after a good-quality 2021 harvest.
Brazil has overtaken Honduras – for years the top origin, but which has suffered successive seasons of disappointing exports.
| Change in ICE certified arabica stocks, by origin |
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| Origin of stocks | Stocks as of Sept 29 2022 | Change on month |
Change for 2022 |
Change for 2021-22 |
Change since end of 2020-21 |
| Brazil | 272,759 | -11.8% | -61% | -75% | +5785% |
| Burundi | 855 | -90% | -92% | -92% | -92% |
| El Salvador | 250 | 0.0% | -66% | -89% | -96% |
| Guatemala | 275 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -73% | -82% |
| Honduras | 127,854 | -57% | -83% | -85% | -85% |
| India | 5 | -99% | -99.8% | -99.9% | -99.9% |
| Mexico | 22,491 | -1.1% | -32% | -56% | -69% |
| Nicaragua | 3,051 | 0.0% | -8.3% | -78% | -87% |
| Peru | 4,027 | -85% | -91% | -92% | -95% |
| Rwanda | 2,982 | 0.0% | -76% | -81% | -85% |
| Uganda | 860 | 0.0% | -62% | -78% | -88% |
| Total stocks | 435,409 | -35.3% | -71.7% | -79.2% | -60.4% |
| Honduras share of total as of | 29 Sept 2022 | 31 August 2022 | 31 December 2021 | 30 Sept 2021 | 30 Sept 2020 |
| 29% | 44% | 47% | 40% | 78% | |
| Stocks data in bags. Seasons run on an October-to-September basis |
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